Trends in prostate cancer mortality in Portugal (1980-2006).

Joana Bastos, Francisco Botelho, Francisco Pina, Nuno Lunet

Abstract


In the last decade prostate cancer mortality declined in several countries. We aimed to quantify the variation in prostate cancer mortality rates, in Portugal (1980-2006) and in different regions of the country (1992-2005).Prostate cancer mortality rates and number of deaths were obtained from the World Health Organization (1980-2003), and from the publication Risco de Morrer em Portugal (2004-2006). The latter was the source of regional data (1992-2005). Joinpoint regression analyses of the standardized rates were performed to identify the years in which changes in trends have occurred, and to estimate the annual percent changes in each period, for the age groups > 44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and > 74 years. At a regional level the annual variation was computed for ages above 44 years.Prostate cancer standardized mortality rates increased 2.8%/year (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.1 to 3.6) between 1986 and 1998 and changed -3.1%/year (95% CI: -4.1 to -2.2) from 1998 to 2006. At a regional level there was a significant decline in Porto since 1992, and later on in Aveiro, Lisboa, Viana do Castelo and Viseu. The regional trends were inversely associated with the standardized mortality rates in each region at the beginning of the period (r=-0.67, p=0.003).An inflection in prostate cancer mortality was observed in Portugal in the late 1990s, with an estimated annual percent change of -3%/year from 1998 to 2006, and higher declines in the regions with the highest mortality rates at the beginning of the period.

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