We are grateful for the interest and comments of our recently published study on excess mortality estimation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.
The aim of our investigation was essentially to be factual about the observed excess all-cause mortality. Therefore, in our paper we separate excess mortality calculations from possible contributory explanations, where several could be acting simultaneously. From our perspective, usual estimates are performed by comparing with homologous period in recent years, assuming ‘normal conditions’. We found it important to highlight that such procedure might not be correct in the real lockdown period. Our scenarios are intended to promote discussion and to demonstrate that the observed excess mortality is higher than what has been discussed. There is nothing alarming about assuming at least 2400 to 4000 deaths as the estimations are explained and supported by both science and data.
Letter to the Editor here (English only).